Rivermatics

USGS Streamgage 09078475

Last Chance Creek near Norrie, CO

Last Chance Creek near Norrie, CO is USGS streamgage 09078475 in Colorado, monitoring river discharge in hydrologic subbasin 14010004. It drains a watershed of about 12 square miles. Discharge records at this site go back to 2009. Typical flow runs near 7.9 cfs in July and 6.8 cfs in April, with the higher of the two arriving in July. Rivermatics issues a daily machine-learned flow outlook for this gauge, reaching 14 days ahead.

View live conditions & forecast →

Gauge details

State
Colorado
Drainage area
12 sq mi
Gauge elevation
8,557 ft
Subbasin (HUC-8)
14010004
Coordinates
39.34389, -106.65653
USGS site number
09078475
Records begin
2009-04-10 (17 years)
Rivermatics forecast
14-day flow outlook

14-day flow forecast

Based on observations through for Last Chance Creek near Norrie, CO. Each day carries a median estimate and the band the model expects the flow to fall within — not a single number to plan against. Forecasts are re-issued daily; see the live screen for the current outlook.

Forecast daily mean discharge in cubic feet per second, by date
Date Low p10 Expected p50 High p90 Range
0.3 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.5 0.9
0.3 0.5 1.1
0.4 0.6 1.6
0.5 1 3.4
0.5 1 2.9
0.4 0.8 1.6
0.4 0.7 1.2
0.4 0.6 1.1
0.3 0.6 1
0.5 1.1 3.1
0.5 1 2.4
0.4 0.8 1.7

All values in cubic feet per second (cfs). Estimates only — do not use them for navigation or for any safety, rescue, or emergency decision.

Typical flow by month

Long-term daily discharge percentiles from the USGS record (up to 18 years of data), averaged within each month. These describe the historical normal range — they are not a forecast and not today's reading.

Only 6 of 12 months have enough record to summarize; the rest are omitted.

Historical monthly discharge percentiles in cubic feet per second
Month Low p10 Typical p50 High p90 Range
April 3 6.8 18
May 13.6 29.8 63
June 19 55.8 101.1
July 2.7 7.9 44.6
August 1.5 3.4 8.4
September 1 2 4.9

All values in cubic feet per second (cfs).

Common questions

When does Last Chance Creek near Norrie, CO normally run highest?
June, on the long-term record. The median daily flow that month is about 55.8 cfs, against 2 cfs in September, the lowest month. These are historical normals for the date, not a forecast and not today's reading.
What is a normal flow for Last Chance Creek near Norrie, CO?
It depends on the month. In April, half of days historically fall near 6.8 cfs, with the middle 80% of days between 3 and 18 cfs. The month-by-month table on this page gives the full range.
How long has Last Chance Creek near Norrie, CO been measured?
Discharge records at USGS site 09078475 begin in 2009, about 17 years, covering roughly 3,230 days of published daily values. The long record is what makes the monthly percentiles on this page meaningful.
Is there a flow forecast for Last Chance Creek near Norrie, CO?
Yes. Rivermatics trains a machine-learned model — a temporal-fusion transformer — on this basin's observed flows, weather, and snowpack, and issues a daily flow outlook reaching 14 days ahead: a median estimate inside a confidence band, not a single number to bet on. Every forecast is scored against days the model never trained on, and that track record is published on the live gauge screen. Open live conditions to see the current outlook.
Where is Last Chance Creek near Norrie, CO?
The gauge sits at 39.34389, -106.65653, in Colorado, in hydrologic subbasin 14010004, at an elevation of about 8,557 feet, draining roughly 12 square miles.
Can I use Last Chance Creek near Norrie, CO data for flood or safety decisions?
No. Rivermatics provides estimates, not guarantees, and the readings and forecasts here may be delayed, inaccurate, or wrong. Do not use them for navigation or for any safety, rescue, or emergency decision. Check the National Weather Service and USGS directly, and use your own judgment.

Other gauges in this subbasin