Rivermatics

USGS Streamgage 12148000

South Fork Tolt River near Carnation, WA

South Fork Tolt River near Carnation, WA is USGS streamgage 12148000 in Washington, monitoring river discharge in hydrologic subbasin 17110010. It sits on the South Fork Tolt River, alongside 1 other gauge Rivermatics tracks on the same river. It drains a watershed of about 20 square miles. Discharge records at this site go back to 1952. Typical flow runs near 62.7 cfs in July and 72.2 cfs in April, with the higher of the two arriving in April. Rivermatics issues a daily machine-learned flow outlook for this gauge, reaching 14 days ahead, alongside daily high and low water-temperature forecasts.

View live conditions & forecast →

Gauge details

State
Washington
Drainage area
20 sq mi
Gauge elevation
1,277 ft
Subbasin (HUC-8)
17110010
Coordinates
47.68927, -121.71345
USGS site number
12148000
Records begin
1952-10-01 (74 years)
Rivermatics forecast
14-day flow outlook + water temperature

14-day flow forecast

Based on observations through for South Fork Tolt River near Carnation, WA. Each day carries a median estimate and the band the model expects the flow to fall within — not a single number to plan against. Forecasts are re-issued daily; see the live screen for the current outlook.

Forecast daily mean discharge in cubic feet per second, by date
Date Low p10 Expected p50 High p90 Range
57.6 59.3 60.8
56.8 59 60.9
55.9 59.3 64
56.6 59.6 63.8
56.1 59.4 63.6
55.8 59.2 63.4
55.4 59 63.3
55.3 59.1 63.7
55.2 59.2 64
55.1 59.2 64.3
54.9 59.2 64.5
54.6 59.1 64.8
54.5 59.1 64.8
54.2 59.1 65.3

All values in cubic feet per second (cfs). Estimates only — do not use them for navigation or for any safety, rescue, or emergency decision.

Typical flow by month

Long-term daily discharge percentiles from the USGS record (up to 57 years of data), averaged within each month. These describe the historical normal range — they are not a forecast and not today's reading.

Historical monthly discharge percentiles in cubic feet per second
Month Low p10 Typical p50 High p90 Range
January 51.6 72.3 485.3
February 53.8 67.7 348.6
March 56 69.7 166.7
April 57.6 72.2 163.4
May 57.5 75.7 188.8
June 41.5 68.5 166
July 35.6 62.7 80.8
August 34.3 60 69.4
September 44.3 61 75.8
October 53.1 62.9 86.4
November 50.6 66.9 240.7
December 51.7 69.8 350.2

All values in cubic feet per second (cfs).

Common questions

When does South Fork Tolt River near Carnation, WA normally run highest?
May, on the long-term record. The median daily flow that month is about 75.7 cfs, against 60 cfs in August, the lowest month. These are historical normals for the date, not a forecast and not today's reading.
What is a normal flow for South Fork Tolt River near Carnation, WA?
It depends on the month. In January, half of days historically fall near 72.3 cfs, with the middle 80% of days between 51.6 and 485.3 cfs. The month-by-month table on this page gives the full range.
How long has South Fork Tolt River near Carnation, WA been measured?
Discharge records at USGS site 12148000 begin in 1952, about 74 years, covering roughly 9,200 days of published daily values. The long record is what makes the monthly percentiles on this page meaningful.
Is there a flow forecast for South Fork Tolt River near Carnation, WA?
Yes. Rivermatics trains a machine-learned model — a temporal-fusion transformer — on this basin's observed flows, weather, and snowpack, and issues a daily flow outlook reaching 14 days ahead: a median estimate inside a confidence band, not a single number to bet on. A companion model forecasts each day's water-temperature high and low. Every forecast is scored against days the model never trained on, and that track record is published on the live gauge screen. Open live conditions to see the current outlook.
Where is South Fork Tolt River near Carnation, WA?
The gauge sits at 47.68927, -121.71345, in Washington, in hydrologic subbasin 17110010, at an elevation of about 1,277 feet, draining roughly 20 square miles.
Can I use South Fork Tolt River near Carnation, WA data for flood or safety decisions?
No. Rivermatics provides estimates, not guarantees, and the readings and forecasts here may be delayed, inaccurate, or wrong. Do not use them for navigation or for any safety, rescue, or emergency decision. Check the National Weather Service and USGS directly, and use your own judgment.

Upstream and downstream on the South Fork Tolt River

Every gauge Rivermatics tracks on this river, ordered by drainage area — upstream first. See the South Fork Tolt River in full.

Other gauges in this subbasin